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ADVANCE WARNING OF DISRUPTION TO POSTINGS

I'm helping on the UK Wolf Conservation Trust stand at the Kent Show from
Friday until Sunday inclusive and it'll involve an early start. Depending on
timings I may not be able to post this analysis on those days - normal
service will resume on Monday morning.
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Saturday. Issued
0554z, 12/07/05.

It looks like being a largely dry and warm weekend for southern areas of the
UK, with an increasing chance of cloud and rain the further north you are.
Beyond that the models suggest further ridging will bring further settled
and warm conditions, although it's varying a fair bit between runs at this
stage. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers the UK, with westerlies and NW'lies. The ridge declines at
T+144, leading to westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with
northerlies elsewhere. By T+168 the ridge becomes a high over the UK, with
light winds for all.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under westerlies and northerlies, with a ridge over Ireland. The
ridge sinks SE'wards at T+144, allowing further westerlies to affect
Northern Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere winds are much lighter.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
A ridge covers all areas except Scotland, which lies under westerlies.
850hPa temperatures vary from +7C over SE England to +10C over Northern
Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland. The ridge declines over the
UK at T+144, bringing light winds for all, followed by easterlies for
England and Wales at T+168 from a shallow low over the English Channel.
Northerlies and NW'lies cover much of the UK at T+192 as another ridge
crosses the UK, followed by light winds as it builds at T+216. By day 10
another low forms to the south, with easterlies over England and Wales.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The ensembles still show cooler weather moving in at the weekend, although
nowhere near as cool as on the previous days' ensembles. There's still a
wide variance between the runs, with anything from +14C to +6C for midnight
on Saturday. Beyond that the chart turns into a mess of spaghetti, with
temperatures largely above average.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a NW'ly flow over the UK with a high to the SW. The
high builds over the UK at T+144, resulting in light winds for all.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...120000_120.gif
A ridge lies to the west, with westerlies and NW'lies over the UK. By T+144
the ridge moves eastwards, bringing NW'lies and northerlies for the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Northerlies cover the UK with a ridge over Scotland. The ridge moves
SE'wards at T+144, bringing a mixture of westerlies and NW'lies over the UK.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows an upper trough over the UK, with light northerlies for most.
The trough is replaced by a ridge at T+144, leading to WSW'lies for Scotland
and Northern Ireland, with northerlies elsewhere.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A ridge covers England and Wales, with westerlies further north.