Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Wednesday. Issued
0556z, 23/07/05.

The models are in a state of flux at the moment as they struggle with the
extent of northerly ridging of the high next week. Some still show
easterlies and NE'lies, with rain for southern areas, whereas others (ECM)
keep the low to the west with drier SE'lies and still others show the low
just fizzling away before reaching the UK (GFS).
It still looks as though southern areas will see the most of any rain and
northern areas still look like seeing cool temperatures with values closer
to average further south. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the SW, with SE'lies for all. SE'lies persist at T+144 as
the low moves closer to the UK, followed by ESE'lies for many areas as the
low crosses Ireland at T+168. The exception is southern England, which lies
under SW'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK lies under easterlies as the result of complex low pressure to the
south. The parent low fills and drifts northwards at T+144, maintaining
easterlies over the UK.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Easterlies cover the UK due to a ridge to the NW and a low to the SSW.
850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over northern Scotland to +12C over Kent.
Easterlies persist at T+144 and T+168 as the low to the SW fills. Day 8 sees
high pressure across the UK with light winds for most and there's little
change on day 9. By day 10 the high sinks SE'wards, allowing SW'lies and
westerlies to affect much of the UK.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The ensembles show increasing signs of a warmer spell aloft between the 27th
and the 30th, followed by a return to average or slightly below average
temperatures. There's not much rainfall on the chart after the end of the
month.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The UK lies between a high to the NW and a low to the SE, with NE'lies for
all. The winds ease at T+144 as the low moves NE'wards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...230000_120.gif
Complex low pressure lies to the south and this leads to easterlies for all.
The winds become NE'lies at T+144 as a ridge sinks southwards towards the
UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Light and variable winds cover England and Wales due to a col, with
easterlies at T+144 as a trough moves northwards over France.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows a deep low to the SW and easterlies for the UK. The low moves
over SW England at T+144, introducing southerlies or SE'lies for much of
England and Wales, with NE'lies elsewhere.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a col and light winds for all.