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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued 0603z,
25/07/05. The models show low pressure close to England and Wales for the weekend, with a ridge further north. This would suggest a dry (but coolish) weekend in store for Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland, with increasingly wet weather the further south you are. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif A deep low covers Ireland, leading to SSW'lies for England and Wales, with easterlies elsewhere. The low fills over Wales at T+144 and by T+168 it lies over the North Sea with northerlies and NE'lies over the UK. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK with a trough over SE England. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm A ridge covers Scotland with easterlies elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures vary from +4C over northern Scotland to +10C over Kent. Easterlies persist at T+144 as a low fills to the SSW, followed by further easterlies on day 7. Day 8 sees a ridge and light winds over the UK, followed by westerlies as the ridge moves SE'wards on day 9. By day 10 a ridge covers England and Wales with SW'lies and westerlies for all. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The ensembles generally show a drier outlook after the weekend with temperatures at or slightly below average in the majority of runs. There are a few runs which show much warmer conditions though. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html As with GFS, a ridge covers Scotland, while low pressure to the SSW means England, Northern Ireland and Wales lie under NE'lies and ENE'lies. The ridge sinks southwards at T+144, introducing westerlies to northern Scotland. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...230000_120.gif NE'lies and easterlies cover the UK, which lies between a low to the SW and a ridge to the NW. The ridge moves over Ireland at T+144 to bring northerlies for all. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html As with many of the other runs, easterlies cover much of the UK although much of England lies under variable winds. Low pressure lies to the SW and it fills to the south of Cornwall at T+144, leading to easterlies and NE'lies over the UK. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows a trough over England and Wales with ENE'lies elsewhere. By T+144 the trough filles, allowing northerlies and NE'lies to affect the UK. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean model shows a ridge over Scotland and easterlies elsewhere. |
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