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Old July 25th 05, 07:06 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (25/07/05)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued 0603z,
25/07/05.

The models show low pressure close to England and Wales for the weekend,
with a ridge further north. This would suggest a dry (but coolish) weekend
in store for Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland, with increasingly wet
weather the further south you are.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low covers Ireland, leading to SSW'lies for England and Wales, with
easterlies elsewhere. The low fills over Wales at T+144 and by T+168 it lies
over the North Sea with northerlies and NE'lies over the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK with a trough over SE England.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
A ridge covers Scotland with easterlies elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures vary
from +4C over northern Scotland to +10C over Kent. Easterlies persist at
T+144 as a low fills to the SSW, followed by further easterlies on day 7.
Day 8 sees a ridge and light winds over the UK, followed by westerlies as
the ridge moves SE'wards on day 9. By day 10 a ridge covers England and
Wales with SW'lies and westerlies for all.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The ensembles generally show a drier outlook after the weekend with
temperatures at or slightly below average in the majority of runs. There are
a few runs which show much warmer conditions though.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
As with GFS, a ridge covers Scotland, while low pressure to the SSW means
England, Northern Ireland and Wales lie under NE'lies and ENE'lies. The
ridge sinks southwards at T+144, introducing westerlies to northern
Scotland.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...230000_120.gif
NE'lies and easterlies cover the UK, which lies between a low to the SW and
a ridge to the NW. The ridge moves over Ireland at T+144 to bring
northerlies for all.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
As with many of the other runs, easterlies cover much of the UK although
much of England lies under variable winds. Low pressure lies to the SW and
it fills to the south of Cornwall at T+144, leading to easterlies and
NE'lies over the UK.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows a trough over England and Wales with ENE'lies elsewhere. By
T+144 the trough filles, allowing northerlies and NE'lies to affect the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a ridge over Scotland and easterlies elsewhere.



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