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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Saturday. Issued
0551z, 26/07/05. The models are mixed today. The general trend is for a ridge to move in from the west or NW at the end of the weekend, with the chance of rain for southern areas on Saturday followed by drier conditions on Sunday. Further north, under a ridge, the weekend should be drier. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif Northerlies cover the UK with a ridge to the NW. The ridge moves over the UK at T+144, bringing NW'lies, followed by westerlies and NW'lies on day 7. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html A ridge covers Scotland with NE'lies and easterlies elsewhere. The ridge moves over Northern Ireland and Wales at T+144, with Scotland remaining under light winds. Northerlies and NE'lies continue to affect England. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm The UK lies between a ridge to the NW and a low to the south, with NE'lies for most. 850hPa temperatures vary from +3C over Northern Ireland to +7C over SE England. The winds become lighter northerlies and NNE'lies at T+144 as a ridge declines to the west, followed by SW'lies for many as the ridge topples over England and Wales at T+168. Day 8 sees high pressure builds over the English Channel with westerlies for most, with further westerlies on day 9 as a shallow low crosses Scotland. By day 10 the high builds to the west, bringing a mixture of westerlies and northerlies. Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The ensembles show things drying out as August starts, with temperatures just below average. By the 3rd the runs really divere, with a large variation in temperatures. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK due to a ridge over Scotland. The ridge sinks southwards at T+144 and this leads to westerlies for Northern Ireland and Scotland, with northerlies elsewhere. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...260000_120.gif A ridge covers Northern Ireland, leading to northerlies for most areas. The ridge moves over England and Wales at T+144, allowing cloudy westerlies to affect northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A small low lies over the English Channel, bringing easterlies and NE'lies. The low fills to become a trough over England and Wales at T+144, with NE'lies and NNE'lies elsewhere. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows a SE'ly flow for the UK due to a high over the North Sea. A col covers England and Wales at T+144, while a trough brings westerlies and southerlies across Northern Ireland and Scotland respectively. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean model shows a ridge to the north bringing northerlies and NE'lies across the UK. |
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