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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0559z,
28/07/05. The models show a north/south split to start next week, with stronger winds the further north you are due to a nearby low. The models then show a trough from the low crossing the UK, with cooler westerlies as a result. Beyond that both GEM and GFS go for a NW'ly spell as pressure rises to the west. ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif SW'lies and WSW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure to the NW and a ridge over southern England and Wales. A trough moves eastwards over Scotland at T+144, bringing strong to gale force westerklies there and lighter westerlies elsewhere. A ridge builds over England, Ireland and Wales to bring light winds for most at T+168 - the exception is Scotland which lies under westerlies. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html High pressure lies to the south and SE, leading to SW'lies across the UK. The winds become lighter at T+144 as a trough moves over Ireland. GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm As with MetO, SW'lies cover the UK due to a low to the NW and a high to the ESE. 850hPa temperatures vary from +6C over NW Scotland to +9C over SW England. The low moves eastwards at T+144, bringing a trough and westerlies for the UK. The winds become westerlies and WNW'lies as the low continues moving eastwards at T+168 and by day 8 the UK lies under NW'lies. A ridge moves eastwards on day 9, maintaining NW'lies over the UK. By day 10 the ridge moves swiftly SE'wards, introducing westerlies and SW'lies across the UK. GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The UK lies under WSW'lies, this time with a high to the south and a low to the north. The high builds at T+144, bringing lighter westerlies for England and Wales; elsewhere winds remain moderate westerlies. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...270000_144.gif Westerlies cover the UK, again due to a low to the NNW and a high to the south. There's little change at T+144, although winds fall light over southernmost areas as the high moves slowly ENE'wards. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html England and Wales lie under a ridge, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland are affected by SW'lies from a low to the NW. The low moves ENE'wards at T+144, bringing a trough and westerlies across the UK. NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS, as with most of the other runs, shows the UK between a low to the NW and a high to the south and SE. Strong SW'lies cover much of the UK, although the high is close enough to southern England to bring light winds there. A trough moves eastwards at T+144 with westerlies in its wake. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean model shows a ridge over much of England and Wales with westerlies elsewhere. |
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