Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Wednesday. Issued
0559z, 30/07/05.

The models are mixed today. Some, such as ECM, keep things settled across
England and Wales towards the end of next week with a chance of rain
elsewhere. Other runs, such as GFS keep things less settled for all, with
fronts crossing the country and high pressure staying further away from the
UK. The GFS ensembles show a cool outlook, with London, Manchester and
Aberdeen all seeing means below the 30 year average throughout the run. As
ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under westerlies, whereas a ridge further
south brings light winds to England and Wales. A ridge builds to the west at
T+144, introducing NW'lies for all, followed by a mixture of NW'lies and
SW'lies at T+168 as the ridge sinks SE'wards.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Complex low pressure lies to the SW, bringing northerlies across much of the
UK. Northerlies persist at T+144 as the low fills and drifts slowly
ENE'wards.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
A relatively strong NW'ly flow is affecting the UK with low pressure to the
north and the Azores High to the SW. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C to
+4C over the UK. A weak ridge crosses the UK at T+144 to bring westerlies
followed by further westerlies from a low over Scotland at T+168. The low
deepens over the North Sea on day 8, dragging NW'lies over the UK. The low
deepens further on day 9 with stronger northerlies as a result. By day 10
the low fills over Denmark and the UK lies under NW'lies.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
A large low lies to the north, leading to westerlies for all. The winds
become NW'lies at T+144 as a ridge moves eastwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...270000_144.gif
England and Wales lie under a ridge with northerlies as a result. Elsewhere
winds are westerlies, followed by northerlies and NW'lies at T+144 as a
ridge moves over Ireland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
NW'lies cover the UK at T+120 and T+144 as a trough moves away to the east
and pressure builds to the west.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS is similar to ECM with a ridge bringing light winds over England and
Wales. Further north winds are stronger westerlies. By T+144 pressure rises
to the west,. leading to NW'lies and northerlies for the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a trough across the UK with light westerlies.

Pedant mode on - but just to show how much I appreciate these updates...

Shouldn't the low be in the SE?

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Complex low pressure lies to the SW, bringing northerlies across much of the
UK. Northerlies persist at T+144 as the low fills and drifts slowly
ENE'wards.


Many thanks,
James
--
James Brown