Main point of interest is will there be any thundery development on or ahead
of the cold front as it slowly moves east tomorrow afternoon and evening
....nothing of sig on forecasts ..so perhaps not..
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(c.20 metre AMSL)

Ive been watching Fridays charts since the T+132, as I am planning a cycling
trip.
Originally, the cold front was well into Germany, then it was across the SE
of England, then Belgium, the Central UK, and today its across the E of
England. The BBC web forecast has rain all day only slowly clearing from the
W with a max of 18c!
After the washout of my daughters party last Saturday, I'm beginning to take
it personally!
Phil

"John Whitby" wrote in message
...
Main point of interest is will there be any thundery development on or
ahead of the cold front as it slowly moves east tomorrow afternoon and
evening ...nothing of sig on forecasts ..so perhaps not..
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(c.20 metre AMSL)


GFS 06Z run-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
for 18Z thursday,
suggests weak CAPE will be present west of London running east of north
into eastern England,with a co located convergence zone, ahead of the cold
front.So,ATM,a few storms are possible say NW of London,E Midlands and
points NE.Little to suggest they'll be organised or severe,


--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

The BBC1 forecast at 2235 was very vague about the weekend, basically
"we haven't a clue" but I do remember Friday's temperatures were
twenty-something, so slightly more hopeful I guess...

Nick

"nick150971" wrote in message
oups.com

The BBC1 forecast at 2235 was very vague about the weekend, basically
"we haven't a clue"

There is a reason for that.

It's all change for the next spell. Unless there is more brewing that
is:

On the 19th a new phase ushers in classically wet weather. So unless you
know of any serious tropical storms in the early stages of development,
there will be wet weather.

The MetO is showing an interesting development for the 20th with a lot
of concentric rings off the east of Greenland and this is slated to turn
into an occluded front that crosses Iceland later in the day.
(Saturday.)

((We ALL know what that means don't we, kiddies?))




--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

wrote in message
oups.com...
The BBC1 forecast at 2235 was very vague about the weekend, basically
"we haven't a clue" but I do remember Friday's temperatures were
twenty-something, so slightly more hopeful I guess...

Nick

In the short term events today and Friday will be highly sensitive to
developments along the cold front and over France.
Current UKMO has a low developing SE England/NW France -
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
perhaps due to organised thunderstorms from France.It includes the
prefrontal trough forecast yesterday by the GFS over eastern
England.Hopefully a RAOB will be available from Larkhill this morning to see
what the the strength of the 'lid' might be and any developing mixed layer
aloft.Any thunderstorms over the E/Se later today may well be elevated.
NMM has consistently predicted rain confined to the CF on Friday morning for
the SE.
For the weekend events are sensitive to downstream developments due to TS
irene as it goes extratropical in the eastern Atlantic and bombs towards
Iceland.
Both scenarios are notorious for producing forecast uncertainty at short
range,


--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" For the weekend events are sensitive to downstream developments
due to TS
irene as it goes extratropical in the eastern Atlantic and bombs towards
Iceland.

Should read 'Western Atlantic',

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

0Z GFS moves the area of weak CAPE a little bit east to north of London at
18Z with the convergence zone to the west so a few storms seem possible say
from the Wash SWwards.Winds aloft are weak and no strong cap is in place.
(High based Cu is readily forming in SE London area and trying to tower.)So
nothing severe is likely, but an interesting feature of the 06Z Larkhill
ascent is a steep lapse rate in the mid-lower troposphere.
Strong frontogenesis ,as seen in WV, is occuring on the cold front in the
west and models are producing significant rain as a surface low forms.This
might well produce some thunder,


--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

Sounds like the weather will now be passable at the weekend, at least
according to the BBC site - nothing worse than showers and bright
periods, and temps in the low twenties.

Even tomorrow suggests thundery showers rather than continuous rain...
though forecasts tend to underestimate the length of time these things
take to clear.

Nick

Well, there is T/S Irene at 40 N 55 W moving northeast, but I dont know
how serious she is - you know what women are like ;-)