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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Wednesday. Issued
0544z, 10/09/05. Today's GFS was a warm outlier by next Friday, with the majority of runs showing cooler air moving across the UK. It looks as though pressure will rise to the west towards the weekend, allowing a trough to cross the UK. Behind the trough will be cooler air, with NW'lies or even northerlies likely for a time. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif Westerlies cover the UK due to a large high over Biscay. The winds become NW'lies at T+144 as pressure rises to the west, followed by northerlies at T+168 as the high moves over Ireland. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif A trough lies to the west, bringing WSW'lies over the UK. The trough fills over the UK at T+144 with light winds for most - the exception is Northern Ireland, which lies under northerlies. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif The UK lies under a large ridge from a high to the south, with light westerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The high declines over Ireland at T+144 and by T+168 it's centred east of Scotland, with easterlies and southerlies for the UK. GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif Brisk westerlies cover the UK with a ridge to the south and a trough to the north. A ridge builds to the west at T+144, bringing northerlies for all. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...100000_120.gif DWD also shows westerlies, again due to a ridge to the south. A trough crosses the UK at T+144 to bring a mixture of NW'lies and northerlies. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif There's a north/south split on the Japanese charts, with increasingly strong northerlies the further north you are. There's little change at T+144 as a trough crosses Scotland. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows a similar setup to DWD, with westerlies at T+120 followed by NW'lies at T+144 as a ridge builds to the west. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif A trough covers the UK, with westerlies for all. |
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