Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Wednesday. Issued
0533z, 17/09/05.

The models show ex-Tropical Storm Ophelia having an effect on the UK in the
latter half of next week, with wet and windy weather for many. As is often
the case with former tropical storms the models vary greatly regarding the
track and intensity. Once that's out of the way, it looks like a ridge will
introduce NW'lies for a time.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies from a deep low to the NW. The winds ease somewhat
at T+144 as the low moves northwards, with a trough to the west ensuring
that SW'lies persist for many areas. The trough crosses the UK at T+168,
leaving NW'lies in its wake.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO also has a deep low close to the UK with SW'lies for most. The winds
become lighter westerlies and NW'lies at T+144 as a ridge builds to the
west.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
SW'lies cover the UK with complex low pressure to the north and NW. A trough
crosses the UK at T+144 to bring NW'lies, followed by further NW'lies at
T+168 as pressure rises to the SW.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Unavailable today.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...170000_120.gif
The UK lies under westerlies due to a deep low over Iceland and a ridge to
the south. By T+144 a low centres itself over Scotland, bringing SW'lies to
many areas.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
Ex-Ophelia lies to the south of Iceland, pulling SW'lies over the UK in
conjunction with a ridge over France. The low remains in situ at T+144,
bringing strong to gale force westerlies and SW'lies over the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows a low west of Scotland and SW'lies for all. The winds become
NW'lies at T+144 as a trough moves swiftly across the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows SW'lies for all and a deep low to the NW.