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#1
September 20th 05, 07:18 PM
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Wind on the way
From the EGRR : T+132 - A Windy Sunday in prsopect
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Phil -- http://homepage.ntlworld.com/phil.layton/meteo.htm |
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#2
September 21st 05, 12:52 AM
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Wind on the way
Phil Layton wrote: From the EGRR : T+132 - A Windy Sunday in prsopect http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Phil -- http://homepage.ntlworld.com/phil.layton/meteo.htm The T+120 for the same time shows quite a different picture. In fact it's difficult to believe the forecast charts were produced only 12 hr apart. At the moment it's a case of "I'm sorry I haven't a clue", though the Exeter chart is now more in line with GFS. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. |
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#3
September 21st 05, 10:47 AM
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Wind on the way
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message oups.com... Phil Layton wrote: From the EGRR : T+132 - A Windy Sunday in prsopect http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Phil -- http://homepage.ntlworld.com/phil.layton/meteo.htm The T+120 for the same time shows quite a different picture. In fact it's difficult to believe the forecast charts were produced only 12 hr apart. At the moment it's a case of "I'm sorry I haven't a clue", though the Exeter chart is now more in line with GFS. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. Tudor, It is also in line with the EC 00z run. Joe |
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#4
September 21st 05, 03:08 PM
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Wind on the way
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
oups.com... Phil Layton wrote: From the EGRR : T+132 - A Windy Sunday in prsopect http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Phil -- http://homepage.ntlworld.com/phil.layton/meteo.htm The T+120 for the same time shows quite a different picture. In fact it's difficult to believe the forecast charts were produced only 12 hr apart. At the moment it's a case of "I'm sorry I haven't a clue", though the Exeter chart is now more in line with GFS. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. Worth pointing out that the single finalised chart that appears on the web is in many respects only the tip of iceberg. The medium range forecaster may issue one or more alternative solutions/charts when there's considerable uncertainty, with varying probabilities attached to each. Although these days it's more likely that the spread of solutions will be reflected via overlays in the graphical guidance that accompanies the charts. As for the current charts, I think it's fair to assume there's a 'bit' of uncertainty in the medium range period but "haven't a clue" is a bit harsh ! In saying that such comments do bolster the argument from certain quarters that fixed time deterministic charts shouldn't be produced at this range.... Jon. |
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