Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0535z,
22/09/05.

The models are sharply divided today. GFS and MetO paint a largely settled
picture as high pressure dominates the UK. However, the others (including
ECM and DWD) show unsettled weather with possible gales for Scotland. ECM
takes low pressure over Scandinavia rather than the high that MetO and GFS
show, which causes the difference over the UK. As ever, more runs are
needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
Strong to gale force SW'lies cover the UK as the result of a deep low to the
NW. The low deepens further and moves NE'wards at T+144, as a ridge builds
to the west. This leads to lighter westerlies and NW'lies for the UK. By
T+168 pressure builds strongly to the west of Ireland, with northerlies and
NNW'lies for the UK.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The UK lies under easterlies and southerlies due to a ridge from a high over
southern Norway. The high builds over the UK at T+144 to bring light winds
for all.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
High pressure is centred over Scandinavia, leading to ENE'lies and
southerlies for the UK. Pressure rises over the UK at T+144 as a new high
builds to the west. This leads to light winds for all areas except SE
England, which lies under NE'lies. There's little change at T+168 as the
high to the west merges with the high over the Baltic states.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Unavailable today.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...220000_120.gif
High pressure covers much of western Europe, with a ridge over SE England
bringing light winds there. Elsewhere winds are SW'lies from complex low
pressure to the SW of Iceland. Westerlies cover the UK at T+144 as a weak
trough crosses the British Isles.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows strong SW'lies for all, this time with a low to the
west. The low moves swiftly NE'wards at T+144 to bring westerlies for all.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The UK lies under westerlies due to a low to the north. The winds are gale
force over much of Scotland, but by T+144 they're replaced by SW'lies as the
result of a low deepening to the WNW.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows westerlies for all with lows to the NW and NE.