So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.

The links to other months don't yet work, but they will do
fairly shortly. This is the last phase of redeveloping the
climate-uk pages following my catastrophic crash in Oct.

www.climate-uk.com/indices/01.htm

Philip Eden

Based on a very brief look. Would it be fair to say that our subjective
experience with higher temperatures all round in the UK, are more to do with
increased Southerlies rather than purely the Climate warming.
Surely that coupled with falling Anticylonicity during the winter months is
the main culprit for any lack of real cold spells and not purely down to GW.





"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.

The links to other months don't yet work, but they will do
fairly shortly. This is the last phase of redeveloping the
climate-uk pages following my catastrophic crash in Oct.

www.climate-uk.com/indices/01.htm

Philip Eden

In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.
snip

Fascinating. Whilst there are periodic oscillations, it's hard to spot
any long term trends. When did surprise me was that Westerliness seemed
to be at an all-time around the early 1970s, when we were having a run
of mild winters.
--
John Hall
"One half of the world cannot understand
the pleasures of the other."
From "Emma" by Jane Austen (1775-1817)

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
news:1104172503.ec564987aa52b7fb572e17bdd7b88510@1 usenet...
Based on a very brief look. Would it be fair to say that our subjective
experience with higher temperatures all round in the UK, are more to do
with increased Southerlies rather than purely the Climate warming.
Surely that coupled with falling Anticylonicity during the winter months
is the main culprit for any lack of real cold spells and not purely down
to GW.

That's correct. But no serious climatologist ever said that Britain's
recent winter warmth was "purely" down to GW. The next step
would be to correlate these indices with mean monthly temperature and
see if you're left with a background warming or not. And you are.

It also leaves unanswered the question whether recent changes
in circulation may be a response to global anthropogenic climate
change. In fact I don't believe it is possible - yet - to answer that
question although some have tried.

Philip Eden

Sorry Philip. I wasn't making a point that there hasn't been any warming.
I'm just saying that the effects have been exacerbated by the increase in
Southerlies plus drop in Anticyclonic activity.







"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
news:1104172503.ec564987aa52b7fb572e17bdd7b88510@1 usenet...
Based on a very brief look. Would it be fair to say that our subjective
experience with higher temperatures all round in the UK, are more to do
with increased Southerlies rather than purely the Climate warming.
Surely that coupled with falling Anticylonicity during the winter months
is the main culprit for any lack of real cold spells and not purely down
to GW.

That's correct. But no serious climatologist ever said that Britain's
recent winter warmth was "purely" down to GW. The next step
would be to correlate these indices with mean monthly temperature and
see if you're left with a background warming or not. And you are.

It also leaves unanswered the question whether recent changes
in circulation may be a response to global anthropogenic climate
change. In fact I don't believe it is possible - yet - to answer that
question although some have tried.

Philip Eden

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.
snip

Fascinating. Whilst there are periodic oscillations, it's hard to spot
any long term trends. When did surprise me was that Westerliness seemed
to be at an all-time around the early 1970s, when we were having a run
of mild winters.
--
Yes, I need to add a line that these ten-year means are plotted on the
last year ... so, for instance, the period 1963-1972 is plotted on 1972.

pe

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.
snip

Fascinating. Whilst there are periodic oscillations, it's hard to spot
any long term trends. When did surprise me was that Westerliness seemed
to be at an all-time around the early 1970s, when we were having a run
of mild winters.

Oops! Please read "what" for "when" and insert "low" after "all-time".
And in spite of the season, I was stone-cold sober at the time.
--
John Hall
"One half of the world cannot understand
the pleasures of the other."
From "Emma" by Jane Austen (1775-1817)

In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
I need to add a line that these ten-year means are plotted on the
last year ... so, for instance, the period 1963-1972 is plotted on 1972.

Ah, I see. I'd been assuming that it would be plotted on the middle of
the period.
--
John Hall
"One half of the world cannot understand
the pleasures of the other."
From "Emma" by Jane Austen (1775-1817)

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
news:1104173380.13130d767480fa90c82f0fd9f6a0a346@1 usenet...
Sorry Philip. I wasn't making a point that there hasn't been any warming.
I'm just saying that the effects have been exacerbated by the increase in
Southerlies plus drop in Anticyclonic activity.

It was the "purely" that triggered the response :-)

pe

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
So, are Januarys in the UK more "westerly" than ever before?
Apparently not. Lots to get your teeth into here.
snip

Fascinating. Whilst there are periodic oscillations, it's hard to spot
any long term trends. When did surprise me was that Westerliness seemed
to be at an all-time around the early 1970s, when we were having a run
of mild winters.

Oops! Please read "what" for "when" and insert "low" after "all-time".
And in spite of the season, I was stone-cold sober at the time.
--
I know ... fingers seem to have a life of their own sometimes,
don't they? I find spellcheckers offensive, so it is always
necessary for me to read through posts before I hit the send
icon, but sometimes I'm too lazy, sometimes I forget, and
sometimes I still misss the typo.

Back on topic, I was surprised that the 1980s-1990s didn't
produce record westerliness ... but this is more than
compensated for in the February graphs which will appear
shortly.

Philip Eden